His party sent out fliers to almost everyone here. In 1998 Hanson contested the seat of Blair, winning 36% of the primary vote but losing to the Liberals (who got 21%) under Australia's system of preferential voting. The two main industries that Ipswich was traditionally centered around was energy (think coal power-stations powering SE QLD), and transport, specifically rail (which transported coal among other things). The LNP's candidate for the relatively safe Labor seat of Oxley . The seat has moved away from Labor in recent years (Like the overlapping state seats) and Fraser was actually the incumbent prime minister in 1975. Red China in those days did not have commissars posted to Queensland uni to ensure that the views of the Red RAt regime were the policy of the uni administration. Select 'Federal electorate'. District maps on this page are approximate. View Original Notice? Im not even a member of any political party but traditionally I want Labor to win just not under its current direction and leader. Australians are voting for the next federal government. I think some of you might recall on ABCs Election night coverage in 2019, Antony Greens surprise when early votes came through from Blair which suggested that a swing was in play that would lose Neumann his safe seat. Campaign Director of the Australian Labor Party State Branch (Qld.) Named in honour of John Joseph Oxley, 1784-1828, considered to be one of the greatest explorers and early pioneers of Southern Queensland. Mr Green's campaign Facebook page and website have been taken down. Neumann did end up weathering the storm but it put this seat on notice. The date change was necessitated by court order. Creating jobs, lower taxes, better health, education. Even if they werent, they cant do what Howard did in 1998 because sandbagging alone is too much of a risk when youre just hovering at the majority line. Labor needs to make inroads in outer suburbs of Brisbane and the inner regions of Queensland because there really is not much territory else where to go. Australian Election Archive A comprehensive archive of federal elections statistics since 1901, and state and territory statisticssince 1990. Surely?. As the great sage Richo says Never hang onto a mug. Speaker of the House of Representatives from 26.7.2022. Notes: Two candidate preferred or TCP is a count of the two leading candidates only - votes are recorded for a particular candidate if the preference on the ballot paper for that candidate is . You have entered an incorrect email address! Then after this division inevitably gets redistributed with less of it encompassing the rural parts of South East Queensland, ALP regain. He joined Gough Whitlams ministry in 1972, and served as Treasurer for the final five months of the Whitlam government in 1975. Cant see any likely scenario where Labor loses Blair. Elected history-making governors. If you cannot search . None of that sounds very sustainable. Stronger Communities Round 8 - EOIs now Open! Even my (still overpoweringly vital ) 85 year old mother the Valkyrie accused me of going off half-cocked the other night.! Well we all know who is going to win this fight Mother Dick !!. Enter your address, then select 'Find' to display your results. Also may I point out here 7/10 people have never heard of him either. . cheers WD, Just to clarify something. Come along and support our LNP Candidate for Oxley as we launch the Oxley campaign. Voters rewarded the incumbent Fraser government in 1975, Indeed 1996 was the first time since 1949 an incumbent Labor government lost. Hs, Reid isnt a contest. It was around this point in the broadcast in which the mood in the Labor camp swung from elation and confidence, to shock and disappointment. Canberra ACT 2600, Electorate map This seat overlaps with Palaszczuks state seat and while the history of state to federal jumps isnt great, that might be their best option. D Beddall MP from 1993 to 1998. Sort this out or neither of yousell be coming to Chrissie!!. If you want new real leadership material, stop protecting dead-weight, open up preselections, give fairly-preselected candidates the backing they deserve and let them *make* some safe seats. Official websites use .gov While Queensland fared exceedingly well throughout the pandemic and managed to keep the majority of its workforce running by keeping the virus out of the state, it still made a dent in the economy (albeit, it could have been a lot worse with a stricken community, rolling shutdowns and overwhelmed health system). Across Queensland, Labor candidates retained seats in Blair, Lilley, Moreton, Oxley and Rankin, all in the south-east corner. It is shocking, even insulting, that you would accuse me of derision ?. The seat covers the urban area of Ipswich and rural areas to the west, and towns such as Esk and Kilcoy. AUSTRALIA: AGE DISTRIBUTION . Delegate to the Australian Labor Party State Conference (Qld.) 2022 Federal Election Candidates Forum - Oxley | Centenary Chamber Join us as we hear from all the local candidates in the running to be the Federal Member for Oxley at this year's election. And then lost the next primary election, largely because voters didn't like that she made it easier for "children to disobey their parents". Hope that clears a few things up for you mate Comparing the validity of O.S. Elected Official of the Australian Labor Party (Qld) from 2000 to 2008. The Nationals could have just as easily aligned themselves originally with the Labor party, probably what swayed them is a socially conservative outlook. High Street Watch the latest news on Channel 7 or stream for free on 7plus >>. On the other hand Albaneses centrist small target approach and campaigning on jobs seems to be landing well with anyone I speak with in QLD (even though I find it weak and wish hed push for meaningful progressive reforms). Oxley Party Candidate Votes % % National: Melinda Pavey: 25,115 51.74 0.93 Labor: Susan Jenvey 9,904 20.40 6.28 Greens: Arthur Bain 6,179 12.73 2.39 In 2019, it had not only been globalisation which had been a perceived threat to job-security in the region, action against climate change had been at a fever pitch in the election, Coalition and the micro-parties took advantage of this while Labor didnt offer a compelling vision of opportunity for QLDs regions. The race on election night will between Labor and the Greens to see who comes second and will be the beneficiary of the other's preferences. You are trying to close the tab or browser. Community Development jobs now available in Oxley ACT 2903. Then they can find one of those outstanding women they are always banging on about take the senate spot. It was 8 points wrong, So if we apply the same 8 point error to the current polls you get 61-39. Are just political grandstanders, with a whole lot of bark, but no idea on how to run a government. There needs to be a leader who is prepared to call time on cretins. Ipswich is over 60% of the seat unless the boundaries are different this is a reliable seat for Labor most times.With an expected alp swing in Queensland this is a Labor hold. Chetan Sahai Candidate for Sydney. Certainly not Lilley. Dennis Atkins reported that the LNP had faint hopes earlier in the year of winning Blair. Couple that with LNP base vote strengthening in more blue collar seats (bigger margins in Forde, Petrie Lindsey and becoming competitive in Blair, Fowler, Werriwa, Lilley) you can see why they might see a long term opportunity in Oxley. Now federal senators are . Business; Politics; Military; Elections; Law; Immigration; Technology. the coalition are winning 90+ seats they might come close to 100. Ipswich is rapidly transforming from an industrial hub of SE QLD (the powerbox of Brisbane), into a dormitory suburb of aspirational young families who work cant quite afford to live in Brisbane or the Gold Coast. Labor supposedly has two fabulous senators, Murray Watt, & Anthony Chisolm. Thompson held Blair at the 2001 and 2004 elections, but lost in 2007 to Labor candidate Shayne Neumann. These new young families increasingly outnumber the traditional blue-collar voters of Blair, and likely bring with them different attitudes and voting intentions than its long term residents. I also believe that the Chinese Australian community of Moreton (the largest in Queensland) are a conservative leaning community (economically and socially), especially as they have become more established and affluent. LNP with PHON preferences swinging to each other can swing the seat to either PHON or LNP. I am interested in watching the rise of the minor parties in this electorate, and others. Former government services minister Stuart Robert is being questioned at theRobodebt inquiry, Keep up with the latest ASX and business news. Hanson appeared on the ballot paper as a Liberal, but had been disendorsed by the party during the campaign for remarks she made concerning Aborigines. Are you okay with that Ben? DEMOGRAPHICS. They are lucky that they received that many ministries after having only five seats in the House of Reps. This allowed Pauline Hanson to fill the void in the region, elected in Oxley (which at the time encompassed a lot of Blairs boundaries). Queensland residents must home-quarantine for 14 days and can leave for only a limited number of essential reasons (such as seeking medical assistance or escaping harm).. I also dont understand why Neumann was demoted to the backbench, Does Albanese dislike Queensland or the MP himself? Hayden later served as a minister in the Hawke Government before becoming Governor-General in 1989. Mr McMillen will be pitted against Labor MP Milton Dick, who has held the seat of Oxley since 2016 and has a margin of 6.4 per cent. Then why are landholders in Queensland clearing the equivalent of 1000 MCGs of tree cover each day? We pay our respects to the people, the cultures and the elders past, present and emerging. Those in the rural west of the council area have been grouped together. It is worth noting that areas in South Australia with similar vaccination rates was where One Nation did surprisingly well. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. LNP pouring resources here. They have no ground to gain anymore. Does anybody know when the last time Labor had 5 seats or less in QLD? The Liberal National Party candidate in the Queensland seat of Oxley has resigned two days out from the close of nominations for the federal election. Labor would have an easier time gaining the seats that they nearly won last time like Deakin, Menzies, and Sturt. Ever since, the micro-parties particularly One Nation, have found a home in the outer suburban fringes of Brisbane. President of Federal Young Labor. He served in this role until he was appointed Governor-General in 1988, at which point he resigned from Parliament. Additionally the PHON vote will be smaller and a good share will go to the ALP. Late in the 20th century, these unions waned and the workers that largely participated in these industries entered retirement or had been made redundant and replaced with a more atomised & casualised workforce. He is frequently in Blair as you can see in his social media and he relocated the senate office to Speingfield to focus on this seat and Oxley. Gideon Rasmussen is a Cybersecurity Management Consultant with over 20 years of experience in corporate and military organizations. Despite tax payor funding political parties and candidates (70M$ in 2022 election), major political . In 1996, the seat became most well known for controversial social conservative MP Pauline Hanson who was elected as a Liberal-turned-independent, but the seat was heavily redistributed in 1997, splitting her main support base of Ipswich between Oxley and Blair. (Click on polling place for results), Despite major changes in boundaries, Oxley has remained a relatively safe Labor seat compared to Labor's two-party preferred vote across Queensland. @Political Nightwatchman The results of the election show that Labor can afford to give up in Queensland. Joint Standing: Electoral Matters served from 15.9.2016 to 11.4.2022; Joint Statutory: Broadcasting of Parliamentary Proceedings served as Chair from 26.7.2022 to present; Party positions. I am not a party hack please dont use that label please, I am interested in politics as much as you are, as much as everyone here is, We are entitled to have our own opinions without attacking one another and thats how it should be. (Par with 2004, or is this the worst since 1996?). Two-party-preferred vote in Oxley Candidates Timothy Coombes ( United Australia) Asha Worsteling ( Greens) Kyle McMillen ( Liberal National) Dylan Kozlowski ( One Nation) Milton Dick ( Labor) Assessment Oxley is reasonably safe for Labor. Mum Camerons being a dick (head) again !. Even then, Id be surprised to see the Libs not shift into gear (in Blair at least) as election day nears. . According to a Reuters tally of provisional results announced by electoral officials in all 36 states and the federal capital Abuja, Tinubu was leading with about 35% or 8.2 million of valid votes . The Regional population 2020 2021 Financial Year report, released this week, highlights Ripley, in Blairs south, growing by 19.4% an estimated 1,889 additional residents in a pandemic year. To make a comment or suggest a change to the election site, pleasecontact us. information from their registration forms and may be running in different districts than in the past. @ Ben, tell me what seats in Qld the Coalition will be picking up? Charlotte McCabe Candidate for Newcastle. Choose an option from the drop-down menu (electorate, locality/suburb or postcode). John It is likelihood that One Nation and UAPs adoption of the negative sentiment surrounding Covid measures throughout the pandemic will strongly play out in SE QLD in the election. Your correct. Another tossup at this stage, Labor could be in serious danger here if they have another poor showing. They were furious at the Coalition, who arguably made their jobs vulnerable via neoliberal policies. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. Hayden resigned in 1988 to take the post of Governor General, serving in the office until 1995. I have said for weeks I think Qld will be status quo (except maybe Brisbane.) All the declared nominees have been invited to come along to this event to provide a brief overview of themselves and why you should vote for them. Its funny Daniel condemns Anastasia Palaszczuk trip to Japan but doesnt mention Scott Morrison took a leisure trip through England. I live in the Blair electorate and have never heard of him. Greens movement Toggle. The premier visiting Tokyo certainly wont help Labor either, It isnt an important trip, I dont care about the Olympics being held here it isnt important as pandemic recover. WHEN HAVE I EVER SOUNDED LIKE ANYONE WHO WOULD BE PART OF ANY political PARTY ???. Hansons seat of Oxley was won in 1998 by ALP candidate Bernie Ripoll, and he held the seat until his retirement in 2016. Oxley. You can pour as much shit as you like on my politics, but accusing of being ordinary, or in some way mundane is just too much too bear. Well !? Time after all candidates have spoken to network with all guests, where discussion and questions can be individually asked. Johns observation is correct. I guess if it was to try and keep seats like Flynn and Dickson in line (respectively examples for Nats and Libs) then maybe it will work but its not going to help them gain ground anywhere. All Rights Reserved. Deputy Leader of the Opposition, Brisbane City Council from 2008 to 2012. Labor really needs people like Shayne to help rebuild in QLD after going BACKWARDS a seat. Betting markets are clearly expecting a Labor tide in Queensland. People were saying Labor had overachieved in Victoria before the election and look what happened. Support James. If they would go & never return, then id be interested !. The Sydney seats that could serve up a surprise at this election. Steven Miles IS ABSOLUTELY the national champion Wanker. Now it's our turn in Oxley. Labors Shayne Neumann is all voice and no action and is taking the constituents of Blair for granted. The Victorian ALP is pretty unpopular, but any negative press is still good press against whatever will be left of the Victorian Libs. https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/31/carbon-bomb-queensland-reveals-big-jump-in-land-clearing, NSW 2023 where preferences have flowed over time, Podcast #86: Introduction to the NSW election, When local council parties break into state politics, NSW 2023 rising preference flows deciding the upper house. Neumann was assisted by a redistribution which saw Blair take in more of pro-Labor Ipswich, losing rural conservatives areas to the northwest. Copyright 2022 Independent Oxley - All Rights Reserved. Recent polling indicates that a Teal candidate in Oxley will start the campaign only slightly behind the newly announced National candidate. Cameron served as a minister in the Menzies government from 1956 until his defeat at the 1961 election, when he was defeated by former police officer and Labor candidate Bill Hayden. Hi SEQ observer. The current division is the second to bear the name, and was created in 1949. Major "Moogy" Sumner Senate Candidate for SA. How insulting. He has little brother syndrome . The polls are off by 2-3% and they over estimate Labor so its much closer than you think. . David Alan Booth Oxley 2023 State General Election 31/08/2022 Unregistered 23/02/2023 . No contest. The Pandemic. Maybe moderate could join us inside the 5kms zone ? Although, these lower vaccination-rates are a lot more present in the neighbouring division of Wright. Parliament House Home; News. Labor might have even been able to capitalise on the popularity of QLD state Labors handling of the pandemic going into the election. Kristyn Glanville Candidate for Warringah. Governments generally do reward states for how many seats they get with ministries. Election results in Oxley at the 2019 federal election Both of these industries were heavily unionised throughout much of the 20th century, the strong connection between Labor and the unions was a healthy pipeline of votes directly to Labor from their blue-collar base. On February 19, 2018, Pennsylvania's Supreme Court released a new congressional map for Pennsylvania. The 1949 incarnation's best-known member was Bill Hayden, the Labor Opposition Leader between 1977 and 1983, when he resigned under pressure the same day that the 1983 election which swept Bob Hawke to power was called. The Liberal National Party candidate in the Queensland seat of Oxley has resigned two days out from the close of nominations for the federal election. Dont assume 2019 was a high watermark for the LNP. Election Candidates For Australian PM: What Do They Stand For? 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